Pre-Election Wrapup. Maybe

A week ago, I thought it was all over. I expected momentum to put Romney over the top in the US election, seeing no likely event that could change said momentum.

Neo-Hurricane Sandy has changes said momentum. Bottom line is that Obama looks really good as president. And, in the end, that matters. He’s a good figurehead. Sandy photo-ops are helping him in the polls.

And, if you believe the polls, Obama is now going to win. They’re even nationwide, and he has a persistent tiny advantage in the swing states that matter.

I do not believe the polls. For reasons I’ve already given, they smell funny to me. I think we have a lot of shy Tories out there.

I’m shaving my prediction back to a 3-5% win for Romney in the popular vote. That should be big enough to pull the electoral college along as well.

Not that I’m sanguine about it. On election night, when the first returns come in from EST, I’d watch Pennsylvania and North Carolina. If Pennsylvania is called for Romney, it’s over. Romney will win. If North Carolina is called for Obama, it’s over. Obama will win. If neither of these things happen, it’s just about down to Ohio.

I see the following states as essentially 50/50, if I’m right about the polls and the popular vote: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Give Romney a 50/50 split of these, and he wins.