Harper Wins Ontario Election

Warren Kinsella says the result of the Ontario election should kill any federal Tory plans for a fall poll.

He has to say that. He’s a party flack. But he is exactly wrong. The Ontario election is good news for Stephen Harper.

There is no national trend towards the Liberals provincially—yesterday’s news was Danny Williams’ historic Conservative majority in Newfoundland.

No—put the two provincial results together, and the real message is that this is a good time for incumbents. The economy is booming. The dollar is going further. Canadians feel good. They are in no mood to rock the boat.

That’s what killed John Tory—his religious schools proposal simply smacked of major change.

And Stephen Harper is the man in power.

Historically, Ontarians have no party loyalty. When they vote Conservative provincially, they generally vote Liberal federally, and vice versa. There is good reason for this—beyond the public’s instincts to maintain a balance of power. When the Liberals are securely in power provincially, the top Tory talent focuses on the federal arena as their best opportunity, and vice versa. Many of the strongest Liberals, meanwhile, are tied up in the provincial parliament or civil service.

Voters respond—all else being equal, the best candidates, the best flacks, and the best organizers, win.

Kinsella himself is a case in point. He used to be strictly federal. Now he is Mr. Ontario.

For Harper, it looks like all systems are go.