Throw Iraq Back?

So what would happen if the Americans just left Iraq? Would all hell break loose? Folks are saying increasingly now that Iraq is on the brink of civil war…

Iraq might indeed collapse into civil war. But I wonder why, if this is something that’s inevitable, it did not happen under Saddam or his predecessors? Iraq has held together as a nation for some time, since 1932, even if you do not count the time spent as an Ottoman province or British protectorate. So why should it fall apart now?

I think what is happening is a fairly transitory phenomenon. Under Saddam, a small minority of Sunnis were in control o9f the country, and they oppressed the Shias and the Kurds brutally. But the Shias and Kurds are the majority, and under democracy, they will run things. The Sunnis are understandably afraid of payback as a result; their resistance now is simply a measure of how oppressive the Saddam regime actually was. It’s rather like the Ulster Protestants resisting joining an independent Ireland.

But that means that what they fear most is for the Americans to leave and leave the Shiites in control. This becomes an argument, in the end, for the US getting out as quickly as possible. If the US gets out, leaving power in the hands of a majority Shia government, the Shiites will either establish control, or they will not. The odds are overwhelming that they will—otherwise the Sunnis would not be as afraid of the possibility as they evidently are.

If they do, they will either behave well or they will not. In either case, the worst will have happened, and this may be enough to end the Sunni insurgency. If they behave badly, something further may have to be done by the world community. But if they act magnanimously, things could settle down soon.

If they cannot maintain control, again, the international community may have to re-involve itself. But it seems worth it to get out and give them a chance as the first best bet to end the conflict.

Might powerful neighbours take advantage of any Iraqi weakness to move in?

On paper, this looks like a real danger. It’s a tough neighbourhood. The Turks might want to prevent the Kurds from establishing an independent state, and to end terrorist incursions from Iraqi Kurdistan. They might even want to annex the Iraqi Turkish minority. Iran, I have heard it said, might move in to take over Shia areas. Saudi Arabia might move in to defend the Sunnis.

But I doubt it. Let’s look at each case.

Turkey wants to preserve a reputation of being a good international citizen. This is especially true with its drive to join the EU. If they tried to annex Turkish areas, this would involve moving right through Kurdistan. This would look like aggression to the rest of the world; it would sever Turkish relations with both Europe and America, completely destroying Turkish foreign polity for generations past. The more so if they moved in to suppress Kurdish independence.

The most they might do, I expect is a temporary Israel-like incursion to suppress terrorist activity. Bad enough, but not the end of Iraq.

And this in turn argues strongly against the Iraqi Kurds pushing for independence, thus tending to hold Iraq together. They might well prefer the protection of the rest of Iraq against any Turkish incursions, as Lebanon sought Syrian protection from Israel.

Iran has religious ties with the Shia Arabs; but they are ethnically distinct. They speak a different language. It is unlikely that Iranian interference would be very popular with the Iraqi Shiites themselves, and the Shiite Arabs should be strong enough in a democratic Iraq to protect their own interests. Since they are a majority, Iran would have little excuse to move in to “protect” them. Nor did Iran show any inclination to move in to protect them in the past, when Saddam was trying to exterminate them and had been considerably weakened by sanctions. If not then, why now, when it would be much riskier?

In any case, want to believe it or not, Iran has really been a pretty responsible international citizen. It has not injected itself into Afghanistan or into Central Asia, in a time when both these regions have been weak and vulnerable. Why would it behave differently toward Iraq?

Then what about Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arabs? With their strong business and trade ties with the west, it does not seem to be in their interests to do anything to destabilize Iraq. They are innately conservative regimes—if only because they are doing so well as things stand, they are naturally averse to change or to risk. So they are unlikely to do anything that tends towards either, change or risk. I can see them getting involved only to counter an Iranian incursion. Which doesn’t seem likely to happen.

Who’s left? Only Syria, really. Syria might be interested, but it would be like a chicken trying to swallow a camel: Syria is much smaller and poorer than Iraq. Its capabilities are limited.

I have thought from the beginning that the US and Britain should have just overthrown Saddam, handed power quickly to anyone strong enough to hold the country together, and gotten out. Never mind this “democracy” business.

I suppose admirably, they have been more ambitious for the future of Iraq than that. But it still makes sense, I think, to hand things over to the first democratic regime that seems strong enough to be able to hold the country, and leave.

I don’t think we’re far from that point.